03 April 2007

A Minor Prediction

I cast my advisory vote about midway through the day today and I was the 77th person in Nome to do so, which means turnout is headed towards something less than 10 percent, if I calculate correctly.

So I'm curious what will happen if only an abysmally small amount of Alaskans bother to advise lawmakers today. If the vote is in favor of putting the amendment on the ballot, I imagine quite a few Republican lawmakers will claim some sort of mandate and try to put the measure on the ballot, though it will likely fail in the senate (and probably the House as well).

The more interesting question is what happens if the vote is not in favor. Will the Republican representatives who have been pushing this thing accept defeat graciously and let it fade into the legislative twilight? I don't think so. I think they'll cite the low turnout - which just about anyone could have foreseen when you call an election in April - as a reason the vote should be disregarded and will press ahead with the issue.

Incidentally, I think the measure will fail because I think Anchorage voters will dominate the electorate today and I think they'll generally be voting "no."

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